In an address to his people Tuesday, August 1st, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko spoke of the possible future of the military contractor, PMC Wagner — or Wagner Group, as it may soon be called.
“I want to keep these guys in the Armed Forces of our country,” Lukashenko stated before a group of citizens and press in Kamenets District, “And, based on them, we should more actively create a contract army.”
You can see coverage of the press conference by Belarusian media at the following link, however there are no English subtitles.
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko: “I want to keep these guys in the Armed Forces of Belarus.”
The fate of an estimated 8,000 Wagner troops who joined their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in Belarus following his armed rebellion in Russia last month, has been rather unclear so far.
As I reported last week, Lukashenko voiced concerns about Poland redeploying troops near his country’s borders to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also talked about how Wagner was “in a bad mood” and that the fighters had suggested “going sightseeing in Warsaw and Rzeszow.”
Putin said he would respond to these concerns at the Kremlin’s next security council meeting, however, that meeting has not yet been scheduled, presumably due to the African Summit which took place in St. Petersburg last week.
Wagner’s “Commander-in-Chief,” Yevgeny Prigozhin also appeared in a video uploaded to Telegram on Sunday, July 30th. I have translated his brief statement here:
“Dear colleagues, friends and supporters. Today is July 30th. At the moment, the time for the opening of recruitment centers has not yet been determined. So that that there are no secrets and behind-the-scenes negotiations, I’m informing you: PMC Wagner continues its activities in Africa, as well as in the preparatory centers of Belarus. Today we are determining our next tasks, the outline of which is increasingly being drawn. Of course, these tasks will be carried out in the name of Russia’s greatness. Most of our fighters are on vacation, because before that there was a long period of very hard work. Neither I nor the council of commanders put any restrictions on the transition of our former combat comrades and current ones to other security forces of the Russian Federation. Unfortunately, few agreed to leave PMC Wagner. Long years of hard work, long years of war, shoulder-to-shoulder with their combat comrades, made us come together as one, and therefore our comrades-in-arms are eager to return to PMC Wagner. As long as we do not experience a shortage of personnel, we do not plan to carry out a new recruitment. However, we will be extremely grateful to you if you will be in touch and as soon as the Motherland needs to create a new group that will be able to fulfill the interests of our country, we will certainly recruit. And once again from myself, from the council of commanders, I want to thank you for your contribution, for the invaluable contribution that you have made to the accomplishments that PMC Wagner made in the 22nd and 23rd year, including the capture of the city of Bakhmut.”
Prigozhin’s emphasis on the greatness of Russia — the “Rodina” or “Motherland” — may be an indication that, rather than being in a state of exile, the erstwhile leader of PMC Wagner is working closely with the Kremlin. At least, this is the conclusion drawn by the Russian media outlet Dzen.ru, which has been closely following this developing story.
Incidentally, a photo of Prigozhin meeting with Freddy Mapuka, a representative from Central African Republic, was circulated by the Western press, along with unanswered questions about how the supposedly “exiled” Prigozhin has been observed freely driving around St. Petersburg and meeting with African leaders.
Just look at that sly grin on his face, and tell me that Zhenya isn’t up to something.
It’s also worth noting that as of August, the Wagner training base, which was established in 2015 at the Molkino training ground in the region of Krasnodar — located in southern Russia, not far from the Crimean Peninsula — has ceased to exist according to Dzen.ru.
But back to Lukashenko.
The Belarusian leader also stressed that his citizens should not be afraid of war. Contrary to speculation in the Western press, Lukashenko reassured his people, Belarus has no plans to attack neighboring countries. However, news of Polish troop movements have alarmed residents living near the Belarusian border.
Lukashenko reminded citizens that their country has access to nuclear weapons among other things. And although Belarus is not preparing for war, the president said his country will defend its territory. Which brings us back to Wagner, which — Lukashenko emphasized — has already provided training to the armed forces of Belarus. And some of Wagner’s experienced fighters, he said, will remain behind to continue that training.
Meanwhile, Polish media has been freaking out following statements by Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, that some 100 Wagnerians were reportedly moving toward the Suwalki Gap — the narrow corridor between Belarus and the Russian territory of Kaliningrad, which is nestled between Lithuania and Poland. Morawiecki also claimed that the Wagnerians might be sneaking into Poland disguised as migrants.
Even if such reports are true, and not simply the results of war paranoia, 100 fighters is certainly not an invasion-scale force.
But then again, they are Wagnerians.
With special thanks to Lilya Takumbetova for assistance with research.
About the author:
Deborah Armstrong currently writes about geopolitics with an emphasis on Russia. She previously worked in local TV news in the United States where she won two regional Emmy Awards. In the early 1990’s, Deborah lived in the Soviet Union during its final days and worked as a television consultant at Leningrad Television. You can support Deborah’s writing at Paypal or Patreon, or donate via Substack.
Great article Deborah! It seems Lukashenko is covering his bases and is ready for any eventuality. Keep up the great work!